Eskom anticipates Stage 2 load shedding during winter

Eskom anticipates that load shedding will likely be “maintained within Stage 2” this winter period. Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane, addressed media on Friday, of the State of the System and Winter Outlook.

PICTURE: Pixabay

He said the forecast was made on the anticipation of the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) reaching 14 000MW during winter – down from the anticipated 15 000MW during the same period last year. The UCLF is the rate at which generating units breakdown and do not perform optimally.

“For winter 2024… the likely scenario from our assumptions is that load shedding will be maintained within Stage 2 at most. In the extreme case where the unreliability increases, that component may go occasionally [to] Stage 5 but we really think that on the basis of what we see, the performance of the fleet, load shedding will stay within Stage 2.

“This is on the back of the decrease of the backline unreliability capacity reduction of 1 000MW which is what we use for our baseline assumptions,” he said.

Marokane said although the reduction may look minimal, it is critical for managing the intensity of load shedding.

“What is really important as we go into this season’s forecast is that the base level for UCLF number is lower by a 1000MW. When you understand the capacity that we have, it does not look as a big number but when you actually understand the implications in terms of the levels of load shedding, to be able to bank that capacity is an important aspect,” he said.

He urged South Africans to do their part by using electricity efficiently and sparingly this winter.

“Our ability to beat load shedding this winter still depends on our collective collaboration and to this extent, we’ll be launching the energy saving campaign this May asking all of us to play our part in this regard,” Marokane said.


Done by: Mitchum George


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